tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10178279.post4186200415352767972..comments2024-03-28T05:13:13.921-04:00Comments on Books, Inq. — The Epilogue: And here’s some more …Frank Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18410473158808750903noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10178279.post-23759344769365353832020-06-30T00:17:09.256-04:002020-06-30T00:17:09.256-04:00Yes, antibody studies have shown that somewhere be...Yes, antibody studies have shown that somewhere between 4 and 7 percent of Americans have had COVID-19. And this data will indeed lead to lower estimates of the actual infection fatality rate (IFR). The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center currently displays a crude estimate of IFR for the U.S. of 4.9%, almost certainly higher than the actual rate. Most epidemiologists think that the actual rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 1%. But that is still 5 to 10 times higher than the IFR for seasonal flu, making COVID-19 a far deadlier disease.<br /><br />Also, if 4-7% of Americans have been infected, then 93-96% are still vulnerable to infection. This brings to mind a metaphor based on personal experience. Like many young men (and now women) raised in the Rocky Mountains, I spent a summer fighting wilderness forest fires. The first thing I learned was that, no matter how long and effectively a crew has been fighting a wildfire, nothing has been accomplished if the forest still contains live embers and unburned trees. <br /><br />The U.S. currently has 1.8 million actively infected citizens (current, not cumulative, infections). These people are the live embers. We also have 304-314 million citizens who have yet to be infected. These are the unburned trees. Even an 18-year-old kid on a fire line could tell you that this fire is far from being contained or burning itself out. Jeff Mauvaisnoreply@blogger.com