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Edward Feser: The burden of proof is on those who impose burdens. (Hat tip, Dave Lull.)
The issue is not just that doing massive damage to the economy is, if unnecessary, imprudent in the extreme – though, to say the very least, it most certainly is that. It’s that the lockdown entails actions that, in ordinary circumstances, would be very gravely immoral.
As Fr. John Naugle reminds us in an essay at Rorate Caeli, laborers have a right under natural law to work to provide for themselves and their families. To interfere with their doing so when such interference is not absolutely necessary is a grave offense against social justice (and not merely against prudence) …
An interesting take on burden of proof. I would, however, like to emphasize that there no way to establish an 'absolute truth' at this point, if ever, and so we are forced to make do with educated guesswork i.e. models (which of course are subject to continual revision). Here is a good analysis of the problems:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/there-is-no-absolute-truth-an-infectious-disease-expert-on-covid-19-misinformation-and-bullshit
As to 'grave offense against social justice', I would argue that it's also a grave offense to endanger the lives of others.
You linked to a piece citing WHO's Dr. Mike Ryan earlier regarding Sweden. His lesson from his Ebola work is not to wait for certainty, but to act fast. Otherwise, an epidemic will always win:
https://globalnews.ca/video/6673069/coronavirus-outbreak-who-official-says-countries-must-rely-on-speed-not-perfection-in-response
And then there is this (possibly somewhat OT, but worthy of discussion):
ReplyDelete'But these are still deeply unreliable numbers, as it is not clear if we should just be looking at Covid-19-labelled deaths anyway. The effects of seasonal flu are not based on tests or death certificates, but at looking at the total number of deaths over the winter, seeing how many extra there are than a baseline, allowing for climate, and assuming these excess deaths were linked to flu.'
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-deaths-how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries
(I'm linking to The Guardian because I'm assuming, perhaps incorrectly, that most of your readers don't read it regularly.)
Well, no one is suggesting that commonsense precautions should not be taken. I wear a mask when I enter a store, and gloves when necessary. But we're not talking about commonsense measures. We're talking panic, for which, actually, there is almost never any justification — except perhaps in its original sense of having the hell scared out of you by God. (When there really is cause for panic, all is already lost anyway.) Also, it's a good idea to remember that when Will Rogers said he only knew what he read in the newspapers, he was joking. He also had better papers to read.
ReplyDelete"The effects of seasonal flu are not based on tests or death certificates, but at looking at the total number of deaths over the winter, seeing how many extra there are than a baseline, allowing for climate, and assuming these excess deaths were linked to flu.'"
ReplyDeletePresumably, he is talking about how the numbers are arrived in the UK. The CDC's estimate for flu deaths in the U.S. during the flu season just past is 24,000 – 62,000.
Frank, I've read that the CDC estimates for the US are arrived at in a similar fashion to the UK ones, though the figures are obviously different. (The criticism is an apples-to-oranges issue, sincce actual Covid-19 deaths are being counted.) But I must check this again, in case my memory is faulty.
ReplyDeleteHere's one of the links:
Deletehttps://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
And
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/02/theres-more-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/
Is this right? I'm not the person to answer, but perhaps someone better trained in statistics and modelling could chime in.
Panic? For some, I suppose, but here in Germany I mostly see caution and now a scaled easing off of lockdown measures (including a clear warning that a renewed increase in cases will result in a tightening of the measures again). Perhaps you and I have a different understanding of panic, or perhaps your circumstances are different.
ReplyDelete