Seeking understanding …

… Winnowing the COVID-19 Numbers — Guest Post by John Carver – William M. Briggs. (Hat tip, Dave Lull.) 

The term “confirmed deaths” as used in media often means (at most) that a death, in the opinion of the certifier (the one who filled out the death certificate, sometimes a doctor), was attributable to COVID-19. Even if there was a requirement for a lab confirmation that there was an infection at the time of the patient’s demise, assigning the proximate cause of death is often difficult, even in the best of times. Unlike determining whether a person has died, there is extensive judgment involved in ascertaining a cause of death. (Along with hospital billing statements, you can file popular television dramas like Grey’s Anatomy, House, ER, and CSI under the category of fiction.) Only a small percentage of deaths are from obvious causes such injuries from traffic collisions.

I do not understand why so many people place so much trust in the media.  The one thing that ought to be clear to anyone regarding  SARS-CoV-2 is that the numbers and the explanations and hypotheses have been all over the place from the start. Plenty of doubts have been raised by highly qualified individuals about the accuracy of the reporting. As with most journalism these days all the ambiguity and complexity is overlooked in order to arrive at some narrative. Maybe journalism schools should start having required courses in epistemology. Some of us are interested in arriving at a correct scientific understanding of the matter,  not the politics polluting it.