… (5) Ivor Cummins on Twitter: "Nobel Prize for Science winner Professor Levitt of Stanford - one of the few who called this thing correctly back in February - with a population fatality rate of 0.04 to 0.05%, largely regardless of lockdown Now calls it again - on how science has let us all down dreadfully: https://t.co/LrUA7t4rhv" / Twitter. (Hat tip, Dave Lull.)
Maybe you and Dave should attempt some simple math. Levitt predicted a FINAL population fatality rate of 0.04-0.05%. The population of the United States is 327 million. The FINAL U.S. death count according to his prediction would fall somewhere between 130,800 and 163,500 (just multiply 327,000,000 by 0.0004 and 0.0005 to see where those numers come from). We'll surpass the lower number by July 7 and the higher number by August 23 at current fatality growth rates. Each death in the U.S. above 163,500 will demonstrate just how wrong he is.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, there is no such thing as the Nobel Prize for Science. Nobel Prizes are awarded in Medicine/Physiology, Physics, Chemistry, Economic Sciences, Literature, and Peace. There never has been a Nobel Prize for general science. Levitt won his prize for work in computational chemistry. How qualified that makes him to engage in public spats with physicians about COVID-19 is a question you should consider.
His Nobel Prize is for chemistry (2013). And I think his point is this:
ReplyDeleteNobody said to me, "Let me check your numbers."
They all just said, "Stop talking like that."
That is worrisome.