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CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases – Reason.com.
These results confirm something we already knew: The COVID-19 infection fatality rate—deaths as a share of all infections—is much lower than the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of known cases. That is bound to be true when testing is limited and a virus typically produces mild or no symptoms. At the same time, the CDC's antibody studies imply that efforts to control the epidemic through testing, isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing will not be very effective, since they reach only a small percentage of virus carriers.
Yes, antibody studies have shown that somewhere between 4 and 7 percent of Americans have had COVID-19. And this data will indeed lead to lower estimates of the actual infection fatality rate (IFR). The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center currently displays a crude estimate of IFR for the U.S. of 4.9%, almost certainly higher than the actual rate. Most epidemiologists think that the actual rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 1%. But that is still 5 to 10 times higher than the IFR for seasonal flu, making COVID-19 a far deadlier disease.
ReplyDeleteAlso, if 4-7% of Americans have been infected, then 93-96% are still vulnerable to infection. This brings to mind a metaphor based on personal experience. Like many young men (and now women) raised in the Rocky Mountains, I spent a summer fighting wilderness forest fires. The first thing I learned was that, no matter how long and effectively a crew has been fighting a wildfire, nothing has been accomplished if the forest still contains live embers and unburned trees.
The U.S. currently has 1.8 million actively infected citizens (current, not cumulative, infections). These people are the live embers. We also have 304-314 million citizens who have yet to be infected. These are the unburned trees. Even an 18-year-old kid on a fire line could tell you that this fire is far from being contained or burning itself out.