Apr 8, 2021 COVID-19: Are Vaccines Amazing? Then Why the Hesitancy? Dear Frank: With all adults soon to be eligible to get a “free vaccine,” and large efficient distribution centers in many areas, what are you waiting for? “Amazing” is the word that Dr. Monica Gandhi used in her 13-minute presentation on COVID-19 vaccines. Dr. Gandhi is a professor of medicine at the University of California at San Francisco and director of the UCSF Center for AIDS Research. COVID rates and deaths are decreasing—good news. Is it because of the warp-speed vaccine rollout? More than 168 million doses have been given in the U.S., and 18 percent of Americans are considered ”fully vaccinated” as of Apr 7. There are several potential reasons for falling rates of a respiratory disease: (1) springtime warmer temperatures and more sunlight; (2) Farr’s Law (epidemics rise and fall in roughly a bell-shaped curve); (3) herd immunity (a sufficient number of immune persons in the population likely to be exposed); (4) adoption of early effective treatment (mostly outside the U.S. and Western Europe). The shape of the curves of COVID-19 deaths in Israel (55% vaccinated) and South Africa (0.3% vaccinated) is roughly the same, as the first graphic shows). “Shocking” is the word others use for what they consider a mass experiment on the whole world without adequate consent, which would include the fact that long-term health consequences cannot yet be known. There is a spike in the number of post-vaccination deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) as the graphic and chart show. Since 2011, 2,749 deaths associated with ALL vaccines have been reported, and nearly 64% of them have occurred soon after a COVID-19 jab. The CDC, however, does not find a causal relationship. People die or have strokes every day. The AstraZeneca vaccine has been paused, restarted, and then restricted to younger populations because of a rare type of clotting problem. The UK’s Yellow Card system shows that this problem has been associated far more frequently with the AstraZeneca vaccine than with the Pfizer product. All the COVID-19 vaccines are associated with reports of pulmonary emboli, brain bleeds, strokes, low platelets, other blood disorders, and many other adverse effects. NONE of these are listed on the “Fact Sheets” distributed at the time of vaccination. All these effects can occur with the COVID illness, so the argument is that the disease is worse than the vaccine. Therefore, people should protect themselves, and also altruistically protect others. Vaccines are supposed to do that, and Dr. Gandhi says that these do. The CDC, however, does not make this claim, stating that: “We’re still learning how vaccines will affect the spread of COVID-19.” There are many unknowns. But in making their decisions, people might consider that deaths from COVID are declining, and reports of deaths after vaccination are increasing. One particularly interesting experience is deaths in Irish nursing homes before, during, and after the vaccination campaign (see graphic below).
Jane M. Orient, M.D. Executive Director, Association of American Physicians and Surgeons |
Hi Frank,
ReplyDeleteI just want to address one paragraph:
There are several potential reasons for falling rates of a respiratory disease: (1) springtime warmer temperatures and more sunlight; (2) Farr’s Law (epidemics rise and fall in roughly a bell-shaped curve); (3) herd immunity (a sufficient number of immune persons in the population likely to be exposed); (4) adoption of early effective treatment (mostly outside the U.S. and Western Europe).
1. We had springtime warmer temperatures last year, when Covid-19 was taking off into what for many would be at that time an unbeliveable number of deaths, that a year later now would total about 700,000 US residents. It's not that it is not better to recover in a more pleasant springtime environment, but surely the spread of Covid-19 may even be attributed to more socializing during the spring and summer months.
2. My immediate sense in being introduced or reminded of Farr's Law is that our interventions, such as distancing, masks, and now vaccines, would have a lot to do with creating a downward slope on a bell curve. Turns out, this is part of Farr's thinking too. Social tragedy, the upswing, comes before social intervention, vaccinations and such.
3. Yes, it seems that the widespread vaccinations can add to herd immunity as stipulated, which will be achieved, as far as we can collectively guestimate, when 80% of the population is vaccinated. Part of the reason for the high number as a goal, is that the vaccines, the distancing, the washing of hands, the masking up, none of those precautions are 100%. If we need 60-70% of the population to be 100% unable to contract the virus, then we would need, say, 80% of us to be given vaccines and wearing masks and such, to make up the 15 or so per cent difference. There's a problem, of course, with such an assertion that we would eliminate the virus when we get to the 80% vaccination level. If Pennsylvania achieves 90%, but New York State only 60%, Pennsylvania still has a problem. If the USA gets to a point where we have no spreader pockets, but Mexico and Canada do not, we still have a problem.
4. On the adoption of early and effective treatment, I just read a headline somewhere, that someone had a goal of a simple pill to treat the virus. Just having watched Lee Marvin's old TV special It Couldn't Be Done (1970), I will not say it simply cannot be done, hopefully it can be -- that hopefully such a goal does not go the way of floating ocean cities of tens of thousands of people each, cities that can travel to better climes depending on the season and weather.