... political scientist Phililp Tetlock ... set up a 20-year experiment in which he enrolled nearly 300 experts in politics. Tetlock then solicited thousands of predictions about the fates of scores of countries and later checked how well they did. Not so well. Tetlock concluded that most of his experts would have been beaten by “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”
Find that chimp!
I remember two predictions from the 1950's:
ReplyDelete1. Nuclear energy would produce electricity so cheaply it wouldn't even pay to meter it.
2. One day we would have to pay for TV but the upside was there would be no commercials.
Yeah, Right.
they say about china what they used to say about japan. but i have a hunch they may be right on the money with china.
ReplyDelete