Whither the Economy?

In January 2005, as it does every year, the Congressional Budget Office released its forecast for the United States’ budget and economic outlook over the decade to come. If the C.B.O.’s projections had come true, the United States would have had $3.1 trillion more economic output in 2015 than it actually did — 17 percent more. Even if the steep contraction of 2008-2009 hadn’t happened, the shortfall would have been $1.7 trillion.

We’re in a Low-Growth World. How Did We Get Here?