The more I think about this, the more I am convinced the outcome will be a black swan. This piece, like all the others I have looked at, interprets the matter in terms of what we know now, projecting that into the future. I suspect something unsuspected will happen. I also think that in the long run Julian Assange and Bradley Manning will become footnotes. Manning seems to me a confused young man. Give him a slap on the wrist, and let him go on with his life.