Of course, you have to want to understand, and not just take a stand.
Monday, May 21, 2018
Who knew?
… Want to better understand Donald Trump’s presidency? Read Tom Wolfe | South China Morning Post. (Hat tip, Dave Lull.)
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The most important line in this piece: “Or at least gives the impression of doing so.” We are, as of today, at exactly the same impasse with North Korea where Clinton and Bush found themselves, with the PRK suddenly changing the terms of discussion on the eve of a summit. And the “suspended” trade war with China is just a return to the status quo ante, with vague promises from China which will amount to nothing. I’ve negotiated with a state-owned business there, and know the signs well.
ReplyDeleteTrump has retreated from his trade war with China, having gained nothing concrete, because they’ve got hold of him by the short hairs. Within days of his announcement about proposed tariffs on various goods, the Chinese stopped buying American soybeans. Soybeans and corn are the primary ingredients in the manufacture of animal feed globally, and represent the two largest agricultural exports from the United States. China is our largest soybean customer, but has alternative suppliers in Brazil and Argentina. The timing was terrible for American farmers, because the Chinese boycott (which continues) began just as they were making planting decisions for this year. There’s a whole bunch of really pissed off farmers in the Midwest who’ve been threatening to throw out their Republican congressmen in November’s election. So, suddenly the trade dispute is suspended, with nothing having changed.
ReplyDeletePeople who know nothing about business make a big deal about Trump’s career in NY real estate, but it’s actually mediocre compared with his peers. And the industry itself is not complex, with few players and a you-scratch-my-back-and-I’ll-scratch-yours ethos. Armed with a million-dollar stake and his father’s Rolodex, he’d have to have been a complete moron to fail. Global trade, on the other hand, is very complex, with thousands of moving and interacting parts. Even his most ardent defenders would not claim that dealing with complexity is one of Trump’s strengths.
Trump is simply enabling China longterm--both economically and geopolitically. One day, the West will come to rue this (probably sooner rather than later).
ReplyDeleteThe EU, however, is in far greater difficulties with regard to Trump.