His observation is a simple one: that in outbreak after outbreak of this disease, a similar mathematical pattern is observable regardless of government interventions. After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes "sub-exponential".
Monday, May 04, 2020
Begging to differ …
… Nobel Prize-winning scientist shares COVID-19 data showing strict lockdowns were an overreaction - TheBlaze.
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Frank, This is an economic argument from a chemist. It says that we go to herd immunity. In other words, you risk D, and I risk M, no policies whatsoever, and what looks like herd immunity to Levitt takes place, and the same number of people die. It is not only intuitively incorrect, but if it were to be accurate, we would all just go about our business willy nilly, allowing ourselves to be sacrificed if our economic system deemed necessary, as if we had no control at all, as if our economic system magically had the best pandemic proofing in it, of anything possible. Economic philosophers at U Arizona tried making the same arguments.
ReplyDeleteNever mind that it is conjecture, but it does not take into consideration that we are trying to get to curative measures and vaccination ASAP. These efforts are happening. There will come a time, when it is safe for people to go out, and less of us will die.
Part of the conjecture is what constitutes herd immunity. I already showed here how Sweden's death numbers are appalling compared to Norway, and Denmark, and let's add in Finland: COVID-19 situation update for the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 4 May 2020. The other country that Sweden is being compared to is Portugal, a similar sized and dense country.
There is no comparison. Sweden has sacrificed its D's and M's, those who are locked down in other countries, but the other countries have not -- those who are waiting for safe passage, without the militia monkeys and beach partiers trying hard to bump the curves upwards.
What Levitt is talking about is that each county's line on the graph is the same shape: Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths: are we bending the curve?. And looking t=at the graphs, the most successful countries lines do not look as smooth as that of the countries hardest hit, but we can trust Levitt's math that they fall statistically into his model.
The question is not just are we bending the curve, and mind you, the USA started off as a bell curve, but is having lots and lots of trouble with going down the other side of the bell ,staying around 2000 deaths per day with all the openings going on. The question is can we keep the curve as low as possible at all times. Norway, Portugal, Finland, et al, are showing that we can sacrifice fewer loved ones to the Covid-19 god. Otherwise, it is like waiting for a Mayan priest to decide whether D & M, & you & me, will have our hearts cut out.