The CDC itself caused a stir at the end of August by estimating that the virus directly caused only 6 percent, or now just over 11,000 of the 187,000 attributed deaths. Most of these deaths were in the elderly.
The remaining 94 percent died with and not exclusively of the coronavirus. These people also were on average elderly and had 2.6 other health problems. This implies a good fraction who succumbed had three or more comorbidities. In other words, most deaths attributed to the coronavirus were in very sick people.
We been comparing excess deaths to COVID-19 deaths all year. We only count 67% of the COVID-19 deaths. Over a hundred thousand of those who have died because of the virus never got tested, and many who did, got a false negative.
ReplyDeleteThis is borne out by the difference between excess deaths and the death count: Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-July 2020. As I write, we have counted only 223,713 of the coronavirus dead USA residents. Divide that by 0.67, and the actual number of excess deaths is about 334,000, certainly putting us on track to have over 400,000 of us die from the virus, as the study shows -- and this all depends on whether we do something about it.
We look at excess deaths, which we've gotten pretty good at. We look at the trends and numbers of the past 5 years to come up with what to expect in 2020. The enrmous difference this year is only explained by COVID-19. We have no other reasonable explanation to have this many excess deaths, except for COVID-19. There's an increase in murders and suicides, and a downturn in auto fatalities. These are minor differences anyway compared to the overall number of deaths, and even fairly well cancel each other out.
At the end of the year, when the ball drops for the new year, we will have lost well over 400,000 of our residents. This number, or any number in any slice of time, does not include the deaths that are sure to come from the people who are already infected. For many with the virus, or who have had the virus, the organ damage that is yet to take place or has already taken place, will kill them in days or weeks to come, or years or decades to come.
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