I am reminded of the reporter who asked Nassim Nicholas Taleb how you can predict Black Swans. A useful exercise would be to notice how much of the "news" and the "commentary" that accompanies it consists of predictions. Of course, a good reason not to buy the tout sheet at the track is that, if it were at all to be trusted, the fellow selling wouldn't be selling it: He'd be enjoying the proceeds from his winning bets.
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