Monday, October 13, 2008

Hmm ...

... The Rise of the Machines. (Hat tip, Dave Lull.)

I think this is a good example of what passes for thought in newspapers these days. We take three isolated quotations - in this case from Freeman Dyson, George Dyson and Ted Kaczinski - and use them to frame an opinion. It's a bit like the common confusion of correlation with causation. Freeman Dyson on nuclear weapons segues into George Dyson on financial computer and from there we're only hop, skip, and a jump away from Kaczinski's paranoia becoming prophesy: "It’s not much of a stretch to imagine that all of that imaginary wealth is locked up somewhere inside the computers, and that we humans, led by the silverback males of the financial world, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson, are frantically beseeching the monolith for answers." Well, actually it is a stretch.
No machines have done anything yet besides what humans have programmed them to do. In fact, it is human choices Freeman Dyson was addressing, not computers run amok. And we are still dealing here with human choices - in this case,m to put it quite simply, choosing to believe that computer models can predict the future. Well, it turns out they are poor prognosticators in the financial realm.
I wonder what Mr. Dooling thinks about climate models. I know what Freeman Dyson thinks about them.

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