Sunday, July 19, 2020

But always trust the numbers …

Fatal Motorcycle Crash Listed as COVID-19 Death in Florida.

… Twitter World: CNN: “CORONA VIRUS KILLS TWO IN METH LAB EXPLOSION.

Matt Hancock launches urgent review into fiasco at Public Health England as it's revealed anyone who has ever died after testing positive for Covid-19 has been recorded as a 'coronavirus death' - even if they were hit by a bus.

4 comments:

  1. I am unable to find recent references to a meth lab explosion in Little Rock. An apartment in Fayetteville caught fire about the right time of the year, but it was an apartment.

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  2. I saw the screen shot of CNN on Instapundit, I believe, and then just did a search for it. I assumed, possibly naively, that the screen shot was authentic.

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    1. It could be real, for all I know. However, there would have to have been a meth lab explosion in our near Little Rock during the period that Justin Trudeau was self-quarantining. Little Rock can't identify the station, since the display shows Mountain Time.

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  3. Whether a mistake is made, calling a Covid-19 death not a Covid-19 death, or vice versa, even an egregious one, even if a mistake is caught on one certificate, or an entire vicinity is doing it wrong, such errors are par for any course, and small in comparison with the missed diagnoses. It has to do with types of human error and political positioning. Cops know, they just wish coroners would make the right call first time, either something is a homicide or not, or death from this or that, which is it. In the worst possible times, worse than getting a Covid-19 death right or wrong one way or the other, coroners make mistakes.

    Two parentheticals here. First if a vicinity makes the error, and expects all coroners to fall in line by policy, many will not sign an erroneous certificate regardless, being professionals with integrity. Trying to somehow politically force coroners to do the wrong thing, is generally tough -- look here at the media exposure, for instance. The trick, though, has been with not knowing that someone's death has been as a result of Covid-19, because of no testing. This is the best reason still that the death counts are low. They are definitely not high.

    In the end, we will know close enough just how many "excess" people died during the Covid-19 period, which hopefully we are somewhere near halfway through. The fudge factor for excess deaths over counted deaths from Covid-19 is conservatively 25%, and goes upwards to 70%. As I write, the counted dead in the USA is already 142,696. We can then estimate that the actual deaths from the virus to be, right now, on the low end, 180K, and at the upper end, 240K.

    Bear in mind too, that the virus has saved lives. People have not been driving as much, so there have been less auto deaths. There have been less flu deaths, for the social distancing and mask-wearing. Murders are down as well. These numbers are far greater than any death certificate errors.

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