Monday, March 21, 2011

Before the black swan ...

... there was Friedrich Hayek: Tsunamis of Information.

"Unlike the position that exists in the physical sciences, in economics and other disciplines that deal with essentially complex phenomena, the aspects of the events to be accounted for about which we can get quantitative data are necessarily limited and may not include the important ones," [Hayek] said. That makes it impossible to produce simple and reliable forecasts.

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