Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Hmm …

… Are economists really this stupid? - UnHerd. (Hat tip, Rich Lloret.)

It would be terrifying to learn that doctors actually think that “drug trial finds positive result” means “this drug works for all patients in all circumstances”. Similarly, if K&K are right in thinking that economists and finance types need to be told that their models are not 100% precise representations of reality – if they think they never need to put a term for “maybe this model is wrong” into their model, and are just happy to bet all our money on them definitely not having forgotten to carry the 2 at some point in their big spreadsheet – then that, too, is completely terrifying. If K&K are right that this book needed to be written, then: holy shit.

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