Scientists have been making predictions for as long as there have been scientists. Indeed, without speculating about the future, it would be impossible to make decisions about how best to proceed. But there is reason to believe that promises are becoming more central to the scientific process.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Predicting can be difficult ...
... to say nothing of embarrassing: Promises, Promises.
Not good.
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Wow, great article, thanks for pointing it out. Mostly, it's all about the money, with some politics and sound-bite media thrown in. But I also liked this:
ReplyDelete"In his book Our Final Hour: A Scientist’s Warning, Sir Martin Rees predicts that “the odds are no better than fifty-fifty that our present civilisation on Earth will survive to the end of the present century.” ….. “Of course,” agrees Rees. “I’m writing this book as a member of the human race,” not a representative of the Royal Society. But while his prediction involves judgments outside his area of expertise, it still carries the authority of science, as witnessed by the book’s subtitle."
-- -- In my own area of expertise (energy) I can't tell you how often the commentary offered in print and the media is well outside the true expertise of the participants, even if the participants are "scientists".