Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Hmm …

Study: Asymptomatic and secondary infected individuals do not infect others.

Unfortunately, I fully expect an effort by many readers to reject these results, digging desperately for any tidbit that might be used to discredit it wholly. Being skeptical is of course absolutely proper, but today too many people aren’t skeptical, they are downright hostile to the arrival of good news. They are in love with their fear of COVID-19, and will oppose and reject any data that might mean their fear is mistaken.


  1. The fear is apparent in the people who refuse to accept the danger of the virus, not the ones who respect what we know and do not know, and thus are prudent versus careless. You cannot accuse a person of being fearful of falling of a cliff, just because they stay away from cliff edge. Also, there is a finding that people who are depressed and have anxiety issues are more apt to get the virus. There seems to be a death wish in there that is too possibly coming true nowadays for too many. I just want to ask, "What were you thinking, why did you go to that party? There's no way you could have been sure of yourself!" This is about to apply to Thanksgiving gatherings.

    And there are those who are suffering badly from the virus, and still refuse to believe the virus even exists, insisting that it is a conspiracy. There are all sorts of crazy ideas, such that even during a pandemic uptick, people should be able to go out without masks, as if it's written in the US Constitution. These people seem stuck in childhood behavior like just because their mother never told them to wear a mask, why should they have to now? Mom's not the Constitution, but there's an adjustment problem in there.

    If asymptomatic people are not spreading the virus, then it is the symptomatic people doing it! The question now becomes, how to save us from these careless symptomatic sick superspreader killers.

    More good news is that the CDC's 10-day isolation guideline is now supported. The more prudent guideline, to release someone from isolation, has been 2 negative tests over 24 hours apart. Yet, we have had a shortage of tests, so the 10-day guide has been in practical use all pandemic long.

    As of November 19, this study SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV viral load dynamics, duration of viral shedding, and infectiousness: a systematic review and meta-analysis relates the following: "Our findings suggest that, although patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection might have prolonged RNA shedding of up to 83 days in upper respiratory tract infection, no live virus was isolated from culture beyond day 9 of symptoms despite persistently high viral RNA loads. . . . These findings indicate that, in clinical practice, repeat testing might not be indicated to deem patients no longer infectious."

    This is a meta-analysis and cautions: "However, data on the shedding of infectious virus in asymptomatic individuals are too scarce to quantify their transmission potential in order to inform policy on quarantine duration in the absence of testing." (Technically, that should say "isolation duration", not "quarantine duration," a CDC-guideline hair we've all learned to split this year.) I read that qualification, for this study, to say that possibly, the asymptomatic carriers could safely be released from isolation a few days earlier than those who have symptoms.

    So who are doing the spreading? And how can we safely tell whether someone is asymptomatic? Having chronic symptoms from another malady, I know that many people would be hard pressed to relate whether what they are feeling has anything to do with CoVid-19. And then there are people motivated to lie in order to get back to work, or who are ashamed to complain, etc., and then there are the careless and uncaring. 400,000 excess deaths have taken place in this country from March until now. It's affecting M's family even before Thanksgiving, such that some feel surrounded by it. Who are these killers? And how can we stop them?

  2. I guess I just have a high fear threshold. I certainly don’t get frightened because media hacks and government apparatchiks tell me I should.

  3. I don't know anyone who does. I do, however, notice media talking about people having fear.

    A neighbor in her late 90s passed away about 5 years ago. She would often take walks around the block. I asked her one day if she went to the grocery store, which is halfway around the block across that street. She said, "No more, because of the traffic." It can get bad. That's a healthy "fear".

    It's more possible that the ones with the dysfunctional fear are the ones who cannot accept that there's a pandemic on, who are so fearful that they cannot even face it. There's also something very dysfunctional about an adult not wearing a mask during this deadly pandemic. Big men going into stores without a mask, big deals, how stupid. Real grown-up men are protectors, and would not want people to feel unsafe around them.

    Oh yes, to feel "unsafe" around such people is nothing but rational, like my neighbor feeling unsafe crossing that street. There should be lights up, to command drivers to stop. Just as we need masks.

    On the train here on Sunday, there was a young man who was not keeping his distance as we lined into the train. When he sat down, he was too close to me for a 50-minute ride. Unafraid, knowing just what to do, and knowing that I would, I moved back one row and to the other side of the car. Was I 100% protected this way? No. I brought down the risk.

    You and I both wear masks. How horrible would it be if we caught the virus, and spread it to those we love? Being cautious is about smarts, not fear.

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