Friday, June 22, 2018

Predicting is difficult …

… especially the future: Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up? - WSJ.

The problem with Mr. Hansen’s models—and the U.N.’s—is that they don’t consider more-precise measures of how aerosol emissions counter warming caused by greenhouse gases. Several newer climate models account for this trend and routinely project about half the warming predicted by U.N. models, placing their numbers much closer to observed temperatures. The most recent of these was published in April by Nic Lewis and Judith Curry in the Journal of Climate, a reliably mainstream journal.
Sounds as if these people were had: Hansen receives Tang Prize award. (Hat tip, Dan Bloom)

1 comment:

  1. Always ask who is paying. The Cato Institute was founded by the Koch brothers, who have earned tonnes from investment in fossil fuels.

    Yes, Hanson'e Model C is off, but Pat Michaels and
    Ryan Maue are asking the wrong question. How accurate are Hanson's three predictions in comparison to other predictions made at the time, some 30 years ago?