Monday, May 25, 2020

A bit of history …

… The 2006 Origins of the Lockdown Idea – AIER. (Hat tip, Dave Lull.)

Finally, the remarkable conclusion:
Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted. Strong political and public health leadership to provide reassurance and to ensure that needed medical care services are provided are critical elements. If either is seen to be less than optimal, a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.
Confronting a manageable epidemic and turning it into a catastrophe: that seems like a good description of everything that has happened in the COVID-19 crisis of 2020. 
Thus did some of the most highly trained and experienced experts on epidemics warn with biting rhetoric against everything that the advocates of lockdown proposed. It was not even a real-world idea in the first place and showed no actual knowledge of viruses and disease mitigation. Again, the idea was born of a high-school science experiment using agent-based modelling techniques having nothing at all to do with real life, real science, or real medicine. 


  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  2. Here is a link to the original Henderson et al. paper:

  3. That paper is also available on the page I linked to. And here is a link to the original Henderson et al paper:

  4. Yes, I overlooked that, apologies and thanks. Still, the pdf format is useful for download purposes.